Category Archives: Publications

Time allocation in social networks: correlation between social structure and human communication dynamics

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Giovanna Miritello, Rubén Lara, and Esteban Moro
Chapter in the book ”Temporal Networks”, Springer, 2013. Series: Understanding Complex Systems. Holme, Petter; Saramaki, Jari (Eds.) [pdf]

Abstract
dynnetRecent research has shown the deep impact of the dynamics of human interactions (or temporal social networks) on the spreading of information, opinion formation, etc. In general, the bursty nature of human interactions lowers the interaction between people to the extent that both the speed and reach of information diffusion are diminished. Using a large database of 20 million users of mobile phone calls we show evidence this effect is not homogeneous in the social network but in fact, there is a large correlation between this effect and the social topological structure around a given individual. In particular, we show that social relations of hubs in a network are relatively weaker from the dynamical point than those that are poorer connected in the information diffusion process. Our results show the importance of the temporal patterns of communication when analyzing and modeling dynamical process on social networks.

The predictability of consumer visitation patterns

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Coco Krumme, Alejandro Llorente, Manuel Cebrian, Alex (“Sandy”) Pentland & Esteban Moro, Sci. Rep. 3, 1645; DOI:10.1038/srep01645 (2013). [link]

Abstract
eudataWe consider hundreds of thousands of individual economic transactions to ask: how predictable are consumers in their merchant visitation patterns? Our results suggest that, in the long-run, much of our seemingly elective activity is actually highly predictable. Notwithstanding a wide range of individual preferences, shoppers share regularities in how they visit merchant locations over time. Yet while aggregate behavior is largely predictable, the interleaving of shopping events introduces important stochastic elements at short time scales. These short- and long-scale patterns suggest a theoretical upper bound on predictability, and describe the accuracy of a Markov model in predicting a person’s next location. We incorporate population-level transition probabilities in the predictive models, and find that in many cases these improve accuracy. While our results point to the elusiveness of precise predictions about where a person will go next, they suggest the existence, at large time-scales, of regularities across the population.

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Limited communication capacity unveils strategies for human interaction

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Giovanna Miritello, Rubén Lara, Manuel Cebrián and Esteban Moro
arXiv:1304.1979, preprint (2013) [link]

strategiesAbstract
Social connectivity is the key process that characterizes the structural properties of social networks and in turn processes such as navigation, influence or information diffusion. Since time, attention and cognition are inelastic resources, humans should have a predefined strategy to manage their social interactions over time. However, the limited observational length of existing human interaction datasets, together with the bursty nature of dyadic communications have hampered the observation of tie dynamics in social networks. Here we develop a method for the detection of tie activation/deactivation, and apply it to a large longitudinal, cross-sectional communication dataset (≈19 months, ≈ 20 million people). Contrary to the perception of ever-growing connectivity, we observe that individuals exhibit a finite communication capacity, which limits the number of ties they can maintain active. In particular we find that men have an overall higher communication capacity than women and that this capacity decreases gradually for both sexes over the lifespan of individuals (16-70 years). We are then able to separate communication capacity from communication activity, revealing a diverse range of tie activation patterns, from stable to exploratory. We find that, in simulation, individuals exhibiting exploratory strategies display longer time to receive information spreading in the network those individuals with stable strategies. Our principled method to determine the communication capacity of an individual allows us to quantify how strategies for human interaction shape the dynamical evolution of social networks.

Limits of social mobilization

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Alex Rutherford, Manuel Cebrian, Sohan Dsouza, Esteban Moro, Alex Pentland, and Iyad Rahwan, PNAS 110 (16), 6281-6286 (2013) [link]

Abstract

findabilityThe Internet and social media have enabled the mobilization of large crowds to achieve time-critical feats, ranging from mapping crises in real time, to organizing mass rallies, to conducting search-and-rescue operations over large geographies. Despite significant success, selection bias may lead to inflated expectations of the efficacy of social mobilization for these tasks. What are the limits of social mobilization, and how reliable is it in operating at these limits? We build on recent results on the spatiotemporal structure of social and information networks to elucidate the constraints they pose on social mobilization. We use the DARPA Network Challenge as our working scenario, in which social media were used to locate 10 balloons across the United States. We conduct high-resolution simulations for referral-based crowdsourcing and obtain a statistical characterization of the population recruited, geography covered, and time to completion. Our results demonstrate that the outcome is plausible without the presence of mass media but lies at the limit of what time-critical social mobilization can achieve. Success relies critically on highly connected individuals willing to mobilize people in distant locations, overcoming the local trapping of diffusion in highly dense areas. However, even under these highly favorable conditions, the risk of unsuccessful search remains significant. These findings have implications for the design of better incentive schemes for social mobilization. They also call for caution in estimating the reliability of this capability.

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Time as a limited resource: Communication Strategy in Mobile Phone Networks

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Giovanna Miritello, Esteban Moro, Rubén Lara, Rocío Martínez-López, Sam G. B. Roberts, Robin I. M. Dunbar, arXiv:1301.2464 (2012) [link]

Abstract

dunbar

We used a large database of 9 billion calls from 20 million mobile users to examine the relationships between aggregated time spent on the phone, personal network size, tiestrength and the way in which users distributed their limited time across their network (disparity). Compared to those with smaller networks, those with large networks did not devote proportionally more time to communication and had on average weaker ties (as measured by time spent communicating). Further, there were not substantially different levels of disparity between individuals, in that mobile users tend to distribute their time very unevenly across their network, with a large proportion of calls going to a small number of individuals. Together, these results suggest that there are time constraints which limit tie strength in large personal networks, and that even high levels of mobile communication do not fundamentally alter the disparity of time allocation across networks.